Market unease over potential tariff hikes — and their ripple effects on the global economy — underscores an increasingly unpredictable landscape, further shaken by ongoing stock market fluctuations.
While monitoring this ongoing volatility, the first thing to remember “is not to overreact,” said Joey Von Nessen, Ph.D., a research economist at the University of South Carolina.
During this transitional period for the U.S. economy, “sometimes it’s easy to overreact to something you see on the news or in your business activity,” he said. But keep in mind that “where we are today is not where we’re going to be down the road.”
Von Nessen was the guest on April 14 for PRSA’s Member Mondays webinar. PRSA’s 2025 Chair Ray Day, APR, Stagwell vice chair and Allison Worldwide executive chair, hosts the monthly feature.
In this environment, for independent practitioners or those who run small or medium-sized agencies, “it’s always important to be looking for new business and to be diversifying your client base,” Von Nessen said.
Economic perception versus economic performance
People might not feel good about the economy today, but in fact, “The U.S. economy is still performing well, at a B+ level,” Von Nessen said. “On most economic metrics, the U.S. economy remains strong.”
However, “there isn’t much wiggle room for further cooling” in the economy, he said.
While the economic uncertainty of 2025 has exacerbated the loss of consumer confidence that started with the pandemic in 2020, the tariffs are not likely to raise unemployment in the United States, he said. According to Von Nessen’s research, the probability of recession remains below 50%.
And while consumer confidence has been low, consumer spending has remained stable. However, like many aspects of the economy, stable consumer spending can cause misperceptions.
“Since May of 2021, when inflation started rising, the bulk of the spending growth was among high-income households,” which represent about one-third of all American households, Von Neesen said. “The other two-thirds of U.S. households have driven the loss of consumer confidence.”
The good news about the economy overall, Von Neesen said, is that “There has been important progress over the last year. Wages have been growing faster than prices. Consumers are clawing back the purchasing power they had lost to inflation.”
Held on the second Monday of every month, the information-sharing Member Mondays are available to PRSA members and nonmembers and focus on topics of interest to the communications profession. There is another session on the fourth Monday of every month for PRSA leaders at Chapters, Districts and Sections, focusing on best-practice sharing and progress on PRSA’s Strategic Plan. Find more information here.
Watch a replay of the April 14 session below:
Photo credit: thananatt
